2015年11月3日
中国：资本品
2. We expect share gains by local champions driven by R&D, market access and services
全球投资研究 Despite global competition in China, we think local names are best positioned in laser
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Laser system (Exhibit 30): Han’s Laser and Huagong Tech are the top two domestic players in China. Based on company data, we
estimate an 8% global market share for Han’s and 3% for Huagong compared to global peers like Trumpf that has a 15% share, and 7% for Coherent IPG Photonics. However, we estimate Han’s market share was mainly due to its marking & graving and small power
welding equipment with internalized laser source capability (mainly CO2/solid-state laser source). Fiber laser source remains supplied by IPG Photonics (70%-80% market share globally). Both Han’s and Huagong have been investing R&D in fiber laser which is expected to grow 15% CAGR in 2015E-2020E globally based on IPG’s projection (likely factored into opportunities from 3D printers). Huagong, with its strong R&D backed by Huazhong University of Science and Technology is one of China’s main laser laboratories, having already launched a 10KW fiber laser in 2013 via its 4.67% stake held in associated company Raycus (Wuhan-based fiber laser dedicated company). Han’s has been testing its own 500W fiber laser since 2014 and proposed in June 2015 to raise cash from a private
placement to invest Rmb1.8bn in a high power fiber laser production line. Siasun also has exposure to laser system and 3D printing.
? Industrial Robots (Exhibit 31): We estimate Efort (non-listed), GSK (non-listed), Siasun, Estun and STEP are among the largest
robotics companies in China, but with less than a 2% market share each. The largest player Efort/GSK sold 1200-1600/800-1000 units of industrial robots in 2015E compared to Fanuc who sold c.5400 units. Though small at the moment, 2015 likely marks the year the robotics segment of Efort/GSK reached breakeven. Each company has the ability to grow its topline, especially in the low-to-mid end market and electronics/general industry. Within our coverage, Siasun is the largest system integrator with the widest robotics production line, covering industrial robots, AGV, military and service robots with a strong R&D background and government support. Estun is likely to specifically focus on the metal forming machine tool makers supply chain by leveraging its existing CNC system and AC servo
business. STEP expanded quickly by its acquisition of Adtech (a motion control service provider) and Show-Kyoel (an equipment maker & system integrator for automobile assembly lines) and transforming from an elevator-focused firm. However given the likely oversupply risk in the coming two years, we are cautious on the margin outlook.
? Servo system(Exhibit 33): Inovance has a 5% market share in China while Estun has a 3% share compared to Yaskawa with 17%,
Panasonic with 16% and Delta with 11%. We project Rmb347mn servo revenue for Inovance in 2016E, including Rmb191mn from its general servo and Rmb156mn from its PIMM servo. We forecast Rmb178mn servo revenue for Estun in 2016E, including Rmb108mn from its AC servos supplying to metal forming machine tools makers (JIER/Jiangsu Yawei, etc.) and its own robotics products, and a further Rmb70mn from its electrohydraulic servo systems.
? CNC system (Exhibit 32): CNC system is a much more consolidated market given end-users are machine tool makers. Domestic NC
metal cutting machine tool makers recorded total output of Rmb39.4bn in 2013, with the top 10 makers (including Shenyang Machine
Tools and Dalian Machine Tools) taking a 79% share. NC metal forming machine tool makers recorded Rmb7.4bn total output as of 2013, with the top 10 makers (including JIER and Jiangsu Yawei) taking a 91% share. Fanuc and Siemens supplies 38%/23% of CNC systems in China, but mainly in the metal cutting segment. GSK (non-listed) has a 20% market share, making it the No. 3 maker, but mainly in low-to-mid end segment while Estun focuses on the smaller metal forming machine tools market, with a 70%-80% market share.
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2015年11月3日 Exhibit 30: China laser champions already built up the scale & brand name Global laser system market share Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. Exhibit 32: CNC system suppliers are more consolidated China CNC system market share Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Gao Hua Securities Research. 全球投资研究 中国：资本品 Exhibit 31: Emerging robotic firms still have a tough battle ahead... China industrial robots market share Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Gao Hua Securities Research. estimates. Exhibit 33: Inovance/Estun are the largest domestic servo suppliers China servo system market share Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Gao Hua Securities Research. 22 2015年11月3日
全球投资研究 中国：资本品
Local advantages are strong market access and lower service costs
We expect market share gains for domestic players given their better market access and lower costs for service. Local firms are able to offer more attractive pricing for the whole customized automation solution (equipment and service) with engineers likely paid at less that half of foreign competitors (Exhibit 34). China firms have also been trying to internalize key components for making a robot. The controller, servo and reducer account for c.75% of the COGS, while fiber laser source usually accounts for 30%-40% of COGS for a high power laser equipment.
For industrial robots, we already see a growing key components supply network for domestic firms to ensure import substitution, but only currently at the low-to-mid end market. Inovance, Estun and GSK are already able to produce quality servo systems while for reducers,
Leader Drive (non-listed) and Zhongji Kemei (non-listed) are growing their market share quickly (among the harmonic type). We estimate that Leader Drive might have taken c.60% of China’s harmonic reducer market share by supplying c.30,000 units in 2015E, tripling from 2014. Exhibit 34: Costs for providing integration & maintenance services from foreign firms are much higher. Annual compensation for engineering positions at foreign firms and cost of R&D/production employee for China firms
Total compensation for $100,000engineeringpositions$90,000$80,000$70,000$60,000$50,000$40,0002012-2014 avg R&D and production cost per head$30,000$20,000$10,000$0SiemensKUKAABBFANUCSTEPHOLIInovanceHan'sHuagongSiasun Source: Glassdoor, Company data
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2015年11月3日 中国：资本品 Exhibit 35: We already see a growing key components supply network for domestic factory automation companies, especially in the low-to-mid end market. Equipment/components exposure by company and cost breakdown FA EquipmentsKey components/systemOther componentsCompanyIndustrial NC RobotMachine 3D printerLaser Servo CNC SensorLaser Integration ToolprocessingControllersystemsystemReducersourceserviceChina (listed)Siasun√√√STEP√√Estun√√Inovance√Han's Laser√√√Huagong Tech√√China (non-listed)GSK√√Efort√√LeaderDriveZhongji KemeiMNCFanuc√√ABB√√Yaskawa√√Kuka√√NabtescoHarmonicDrive Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research Domestic laser firms have already gone through low end substitution, with Han’s revenue growing by 37% p.a. during 2005-2009, vs. China’s laser market growth of 26%. We estimate Han’s already has a 30%-40% market share in small power laser equipment (with 58% orders from Apple and 12% from Samsung/Huawei/Xiaomi combined in 2014). Aiming to reduce costs by internalizing fiber lasers, the company started testing its own 500W fiber laser in 2014. We expect Han’s to maintain its leading position domestically given its better market access, and the potential to internalize its fiber laser source and reduce reliance on its US supplier IPG. 全球投资研究 24 2015年11月3日 中国：资本品
Exhibit 36: We expect Han’s to hold its leading domestic position in lasers
Exhibit 37: Laser source usually account for c.30% of total equipment cost Global laser market share for major players
Global laser source cost as % of laser equipment
30%Global laser market share for major players
Laser source cost as % of laser equipment35%4.5%%6.0%5.3%5.2%Rofin-Sinar(Germany)30 %6.7%Coherent (US)25%7.5%7.6%7.7%8.0%IPG Photonics20%6.5%(US)5.5%6.1%3.6%3.8%4.7%Huagong Tech3.2%4.1%3.8%2.7%3.4%2.7%5%2.4%Han's Laser2.2%1.9%1.5%1.8%5.5%5.8%5.6%6.7%6.6%7.7%5%1.2%2.2%2.6%0%1.4%0 06200720082009201020112012201320142008200920102011201220132014Source: Optech Consulting,, Industrial Laser Solutions, Company data
Source: Optech Consulting, Industrial Laser Solutions
A blue sky scenario – we may see up to 25ppt share gain for domestic brands in 10 years
On top of our forecast growth of 8% CAGR from 2015-2025E for industrial robots, 7% for laser material processing and 5% for CNC system industry, an import substitution opportunity (reducing imports and making it domestically) could contribute additional growth for domestic companies. By analyzing historical data, we see there was an up to 25pp share gain for machine tools during 2002-2009 and the same for construction machinery such as excavators during 2006-2011.
We see the pace of import substitution driven by: 1) The fast growth of domestic demand and production drives growing scale as well as R&D for domestic companies. China machine tools consumption and domestic production increased by 21%/31% p.a. from 2002-2009 while
excavator sales grew by 32% p.a. in 2006-2011; 2) Lower labor costs translates into a pricing advantage for products; 3) Strong government support and subsidies.
We see all three factors remaining intact over the next 10 years. However, given slowing growth in domestic demand and the narrowing labor cost gap, we think the pace of import substitution may slow. But we are likely to see stronger government support and subsidies on innovation-driven sectors before labor costs close their gap vs. DM countries over the next 10-15 years.
全球投资研究 25
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