2015年11月3日
Exhibit 38: Share of imports in China machine tool consumption
Machine tools: import as % of total China machine tools consumption
Import as % of total China machine tools consumption
70`P@0 %0%Source: Wind
全球投资研究 中国：资本品
Exhibit 39: ...with a similar trend for foreign share in China excavator sales Excavator: share of foreign brands in China
Excavator: share of foreign brands (%)100??p`P@0 %0%Source: Shanghai Consulting, Company data
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2015年11月3日 中国：资本品
3. 2016-17E downstream capex not broadly encouraging, we favor smartphone & EV
2016-17E earnings growth path unlikely to be smooth, we favor exposure to smartphone & EV
We expect overall industrials capex demand to fall 20%-30% in 2015 and to either flatten out or fall slightly in 2016 (see Asia Machinery: China capex to fall 30-40% yoy in 2H; Downgrade Japan & China capex names, September 23, 2015). However, with still-small exposure to structurally growing markets such as robotics and motion control and better downstream demand from New Energy Vehicle and
smartphone upgrades, topline for our coverage in 4Q2015-2016 is unlikely to be hit by the same magnitude. But they are not immune from the overall downstream capex headwind given the still-significant 2016E revenue exposure to general manufacturing industries. We expect a divergent performance among business segments given the diversity of the capex outlook as charted in Exhibit 40.
Exhibit 40: Topline growth continues to be mixed 2016E revenue breakdown
Han's Inovance Siasun HollysysOthers, Others, Transportation Warehouse 27%Elevator automationautomationMES, Industrial controller10$%AutomationSmall power laser Electric 33&%equipment, Vehicle High power Industrial Automatic laser 59%Controller23%LV robotics, assemblyline,equipment, 400%Railway Transportation, 14%General inverter, servo, 149%8%PLC, 3%Huagong STEP Estun HaitianSmall power Full electric & Hologramlaser Others, two plate products,equipment, High20%Elevator CNC PIMM, 6%power laser control, 31%Industrial system, 18%Optical-equipment, Robots, 34%electronic 12%Robotics & 31Tvice,motion control,Other 43%Electronic components 31%& sensor, Inverter, Electro-PIMM, AC servo, 24%hydraulic 82%Servo, 17%>30% yoy growth10% to 30% yoy growth<10% yoy
Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates
全球投资研究 27
2015年11月3日
Exhibit 41: New energy vehicles forecast to grow rapidly till 2020E New energy vehicle sales volume 2013-2020E
1,600
1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 -201320142015E2016E2017E2018E2019E2020ENew energy CV 000 unitPHEV car 000 unitEV car 000 unitSource: CAAM, Gao Hua Securities Research.
Exhibit 43: China auto capacity addition expected to grow by 9% in 2016E China auto capacity addition planned
China Auto capacity additions planned (in thousand units)
4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000
Source: CAAM, Gao Hua Securities Research.
全球投资研究 中国：资本品
Exhibit 42: Smartphone upgrade demand to drive China handset growth China handset units sales 2003-2017E
mnSmartphone upgradesNew smartphone subs6005004003002001000
Source: Gartner, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Exhibit 44: As a proxy for general manufacturing industry, we see yoy decline trend for machine tools production lasting until at least 2H2016E Machine tools production and yoy growth 100%yoy growth: NC metal cutting machinery tool (LHS)45%yoy growth: Metal cutting machine tool (LHS)NC% as of total metal cutting machine tool (RHS)80@`50@% %0%-20%-40%5%-60%0%Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15
Source: Wind
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2015年11月3日
全球投资研究 中国：资本品
Han’s Laser and Inovance to deliver better earnings performance in 2016E-2017E
We still view smartphones with a relatively bright outlook compared to autos and general manufacturing industry. While the State Council announced a stimulus package on Sept 30, our China Auto team believes the stimulus could boost 4Q2015E-16E car demand, but might be negative for 2017E growth, suggesting a possible delay in capex cut from 2016E to 2017E. For electronics, we expect 2016 to be the
biennial year when many iPhones and other smartphones are upgraded and therefore needs new machines too. Among our coverage, Han’s Laser has the highest exposure to electronics (mainly the smartphone supply chain). We estimate c.50% of Han’s small power laser equipment revenue coming from Apple’s foundries and another c.10% from Samsung/Huawei/Xiaomi combined. Inovance is capable of capturing new opportunities, especially Electrical Vehicles which we forecast growing fast in 15E-16E, and we expect its EV controller revenue to see 131%/65% yoy growth in 2015E/2016E by now forecasting penetration into larger PV segment. Han’s already won its first lithium battery welding order in 2015, and we expect this new demand exposure and potential penetration into other EV-related orders to take off from 2015E onwards.
From a productivity perspective, we like well-established brand names for Han’s that allows it to specialize in R&D and key production processes. By dividing revenue against total R&D and production employees since 2007, Han’s has delivered consistent improvement in output efficiency, in stark contract with Huagong Tech that has a national laboratory background. Given its strong track record, we expect the company to start to internalize its fiber laser source from 2017E, leading to a 2pp margin improvement from 2015E.
Exhibit 45: Han’s Laser high exposure to electronics leaves it well positioned for the 2016E biennial smartphone upgrade cycle; EV related orders also expected to take off 2016E Revenue breakdown by industry
100??p`%Others50%General usageAuto40%EV relatedElectronics30 %0%Han'sInovanceHuagongHaitianSTEPSiasunEstunHollysys
Source: Gao Hua Securities Research.
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2015年11月3日
Exhibit 46: Han’s to benefit from smartphone upgrade & lithium battery
welding
100%
90?p%Others60%High power50%laser &44@@9BBA%automation389@@AB%equipment36%Small powerlaser &30%automationequipment20%Gross margin10%0 052006200720082009201020112012201320142015E2016E2017ESource: Gao Hua Securities Research.
Exhibit 48: Han’s Laser has improving R&D/production output efficiency
Rmb mnRevenue/(R&D + production) employee
Han'sHollysysInovanceSiasunHuagong1.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.020072008200920102011201220132014 Source: Company data
全球投资研究 中国：资本品
Exhibit 47: We now expect Inovance to penetrate into PV controllers
100??%Others70ú: Sensors60RSURSPPPPú: Controllers50IIú: Motion40%ControlNew energy30%Inverters20%Gross margin10%0 0720082009201020112012201320142015E2016E2017E
Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research.
Exhibit 49: Global peers with high CROCI saw better sales efficiency Revenue per employee by quartile based on 2015E-2017E CROCIUS$mn1st quartile 15E-17E CROCI2nd quartile 15E-17E CROCI0.73rd quartile 15E-17E CROCI4th quartile 15E-17E CROCI0.60.50.40.30.20.10.0
Source: Company data
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