残差自相关检验
Model Summaryb Adjusted R Std. Error of the Model R R Square Square Estimate Durbin-Watson 1 .679a .460 .422 8.75716 .470 a. Predictors: (Constant), 年份 b. Dependent Variable: 金属切削机床产量
Winters指数平滑模型
Model Description Model Type Model ID 啤酒销量 Model_1 Winters' Multiplicative
保存变量截图
季节哑变量多元回归 回归检验 Tests of Between-Subjects Effects Dependent Variable:啤酒销量 Type III Sum of Source Corrected Model Intercept 季节 时间t Error Total Corrected Total Squares 1548.462 5121.003 1098.305 368.004 137.163 35661.000 1685.625 a df 4 1 3 1 19 Mean Square 387.115 5121.003 366.102 368.004 F 53.624 709.368 50.713 50.976 Sig. .000 .000 .000 .000 7.219 24 23 a. R Squared = .919 (Adjusted R Squared = .901)
系数估计
Parameter Estimates Dependent Variable:啤酒销量 95% Confidence Interval Parameter Intercept [季节=1] [季节=2] [季节=3] [季节=4] 时间t B 26.475 -3.780 5.480 14.240 0 .573 aStd. Error 1.571 1.570 1.560 1.553 . .080 t 16.857 -2.408 3.514 9.167 . 7.140 Sig. .000 .026 .002 .000 . .000 Lower Bound 23.188 -7.066 2.216 10.989 . .405 Upper Bound 29.762 -.495 8.744 17.491 . .741 a. This parameter is set to zero because it is redundant.
分解预测
Seasonal Decomposition 保存变量截图
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