耕地面积变化趋势及社会经济驱动因子分析——以博尔塔拉蒙古自治州为例

耕地面积变化趋势及社会经济驱动因子分析——以博尔塔

拉蒙古自治州为例

许宁;海米提·依米提;魏彬;艾则买提·艾赛提;安外尔·艾则孜

【期刊名称】《安徽农业科学》 【年(卷),期】2012(040)034

【摘要】The main driving forces that caused the change of the cultivated land use were pointed out, based on the ten socio-economic indicators including agricultural acreage, population, animal husbandry and so on during 1988 -2009 in Bozhou, and meanwhile the method of GM (1,1) model together with grey correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis contributes to the outcome of the statistics. The results showed three trends. The first one is that, during the years of 1988 to 2009, the increase of the agricultural acreage has experienced a slow to rapid increase in Bozhou, especially in 2007 and 2008, in which the growth is explosive. During the following eight years that is from 2008 to 2016 the enlargement will keep steady with a small increase or decrease. After 2016, the increase begins to pace up. The second point is that the three biggest indicators that impacted the cultivated land area are population, animal husbandry and total grain output and their correlation values are 0.994 8, 0.993 9, and 0.990 8. Besides the total power of agricultural machinery is the minimum impact fact agricultural acreage whose correlation value is 0.682 2. The last one is the driving