Export Products
FY 2020 U.S. grain and feed exports are forecast at $29.4 billion, down $300 million from the February projection, as lower wheat and corn exports more than offset higher sorghum exports. Corn exports are forecast at $8.0 billion, down $500 million from the February forecast on lower unit values due to ample supplies available for export, expectations of record U.S. production in 2020, and weak domestic use for fuel ethanol. Sorghum exports are forecast at $1.0 billion, $500 million above what was forecast in February on larger volumes and higher unit values, supported by demand from China. Feed and fodder exports are forecast at $7.8 billion, unchanged, as higher unit prices offset lower volumes. Wheat exports are forecast at $6.1 billion, down $300 million from February mainly on lower volumes due to larger global supplies and uncompetitive pricing. The rapid pace of exports from the European Union (EU) in recent months has constrained U.S. old-crop shipments. With 2020/21 global production forecast at a record high, new-crop shipments may face stiff competition, especially from Canada and Russia. Rice exports are forecast at $2.0 billion, unchanged from the February projection, as higher unit values offset lower expected volumes.
The oilseeds and products export forecast is reduced $1.6 billion to $25.5 billion. Lower soybean export values reflect both lower volumes and lower unit prices. Soybean exports are forecast down $1.9 billion from the February forecast, to $16.5 billion. Forecast unit values are lowered from the previous forecast partly due to the impact of a weak Brazilian real as well as weaker than expected import demand for U.S. soybeans. The soybean meal export forecast is unchanged as declines in unit values are offset by higher volumes. Soybean oil values are up $200 million with larger volumes more than offsetting lower unit values. Somewhat weaker global demand for vegetable oil in response to reduced biofuel demand arising from the impact of COVID-19 mitigation efforts has pressured unit values.
Cotton exports are forecast at $5.2 billion, down $1.0 billion from the February projection on lower volumes and unit values. The COVID-19 pandemic has reduced foreign demand for cotton as mills have dramatically cut operating rates, helping to drive forecast volumes down 8 percent. Global restrictions and changes in consumer behavior related to the pandemic have also slowed consumer purchases of cotton products, dampening demand and pressuring prices. Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are forecast unchanged from the February projection of $32.4 billion as strengthened demand for pork and dairy products offsets a decline for beef and poultry products. Dairy exports are raised $200 million to $6.2 billion as U.S. dairy export volumes, particularly for dry milk powder, are expected to grow. U.S. dairy products are price
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
competitive, and global import demand remains strong. The pork forecast is raised $200 million to $6.9 billion as higher volumes offset a small decline in unit values. Strong demand from China continues to drive growth in U.S. pork exports. The beef forecast is lowered nearly $300 million to $7.2 billion as lower volumes are only partially offset by the higher prices associated with tighter domestic supplies. Poultry and poultry products are forecast $100 million lower than was expected in February, to $5.5 billion on reductions in volumes and values for broiler meat. Horticultural product exports are forecast at $35.5 billion, unchanged from the February projection. Whole and processed tree nuts are unchanged at $9.1 billion, with most shipments destined for Europe and Asia. Fresh fruit and vegetables are unchanged at $7.1 billion on stable shipments to top markets Canada and Mexico. Processed fruits and vegetables are unchanged at $7.0 billion on steady shipments to Canada.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Value and volume by commodity, 2019 - 2020CommodityVALUEGrains and feeds 1/ Wheat 2/ Rice Coarse grains 3/ Corn Feeds and foddersOilseeds and products 4/ Soybeans Soybean meal 5/ Soybean oilLivestock, poultry, and dairy Livestock products Beef and veal 6/ Pork 6/ Beef and pork variety meats 6/ Hides, skins, and furs Poultry and products Broiler meat 6/ 7/ Dairy productsTobacco, unmanufacturedCottonSeedsHorticultural products 8/ Fruits and vegetables, fresh Fruits and vegetables, processed 8/ Tree nuts, whole and processedSugar and tropical products 9/ Major bulk products 10/ TotalVOLUMEWheat 2/RiceCoarse grains 3/ CornFeeds and foddersSoybeansSoybean meal 5/Soybean oilBeef and veal 6/Pork 6/Beef and pork variety meats 6/Broiler meat 6/ 7/Tobacco, unmanufacturedCotton Major bulk products 10/Total may not add due to rounding. 1/ Includes corn gluten feed and meal and processed grain products. 2/ Excludes wheat flour. 3/ Includes corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye. 4/ Excludes corn gluten feed and meal. 5/ Includes soy flours made from protein meals. 6/ Includes chilled, frozen, and processed meats. 7/ Includes only federally inspected product. 8/ Includes juices. 9/ Includes coffee and cocoa products, tea, and spices. 10/ Includes wheat, rice, coarse grains, soybeans, cotton, and unmanufactured tobacco. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service analysis and forecasts using data fromU.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.12.0791.71329.22728.11010.33727.4646.5420.5010.4931.0050.3451.6300.0561.54072.07815.2252.9280.8885.2815.0723.80114.2879.6242.4150.38314.7159.5393.5682.6010.7560.6112.4531.4702.7230.4262.8311.30018.0823.2953.4375.3772.89722.10969.767---Billion dollars---13.80430.0072.8160.9543.7603.3813.91115.39310.5672.3220.53416.61810.7673.5383.7300.8800.4852.6351.6563.2170.3553.0301.07718.1083.3413.4085.4382.83921.59971.2286.2441.8559.4708.9777.78725.82816.9494.4640.67730.18319.3667.2825.5181.5621.1085.1423.1795.6750.7546.0701.89934.9647.0666.8598.9975.83341.586135.54429.7 6.4 2.0 9.0 8.5 7.8 27.1 18.4 4.3 0.7 32.4 20.8 7.5 6.7 1.7 0.9 5.6 3.7 6.0 0.8 6.2 2.0 35.5 7.1 7.0 9.1 5.9 42.8 139.5 29.4 6.1 2.0 9.0 8.0 7.8 25.5 16.5 4.3 0.9 32.4 20.7 7.2 6.9 1.7 0.9 5.5 3.6 6.2 0.7 5.2 1.8 35.5 7.1 7.0 9.1 5.9 39.5 136.5 October - MarchFY 2019FY 2020Fiscal year2019ForecastFiscal year 2020Feb.May--- Million metric tons ---11.9831.78620.30118.31210.21729.1696.6190.6920.5011.3460.3831.6950.0481.86565.15226.6263.62151.64249.07621.57848.11812.2960.8811.0142.0570.7283.2210.1053.423133.53627.5 3.8 50.1 47.0 21.8 49.7 12.0 0.9 1.1 2.4 0.8 3.3 0.2 3.6 134.9 26.1 3.7 52.4 47.0 21.3 45.6 12.2 1.2 1.0 2.5 0.8 3.3 0.1 3.3 131.2 .
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
Regional Exports
Outlook for Fiscal Year 2020
Agricultural exports in FY 2020 are forecast at $136.5 billion, $3.0 billion lower than the February projection. Asia accounts for two-thirds of the reduction. Asia
The export forecast for China is lowered $1.0 billion from February to $13.0 billion, in part due to lower forecast volumes and unit values for soybean and cotton. In addition, China has been sourcing record volumes of soybeans from Brazil, helped by a weak Brazilian real. Forecast exports to Hong Kong are reduced by $500 million to $2.5 billion due to lower-than-expected shipments of consumer-oriented products, especially tree nuts, beef, and poultry meat. Exports to South Korea are lowered $300 million from February to $7.7 billion on lower-than-expected sales of bulk products, especially corn. The 2020 forecast for exports to Vietnam is reduced $200 million to $3.5 billion as a result of weak demand for cotton. Western Hemisphere
The export forecast for Canada is reduced by $300 million to $21.2 billion, mainly due to sluggish sales of soybeans. The new projection still represents a 1-percent increase over the previous year. Forecast exports to Mexico are unchanged at $19.8 billion, which represents a 4-percent increase from FY 2019, as strong exports of poultry, pork, and dairy more than offset lower corn and cotton shipments.
The export forecast for Central America is increased by $400 million from February to $4.4 billion, driven by stronger-than-expected shipments to date, especially for corn and consumer-oriented products to Honduras.
Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Oceania
Exports to the EU are forecast at $11.5 billion, which is $800 million lower than the previous projection due to a reduction in demand for soybeans, soybean meal, and other feeds and fodders. With this change the EU is dropping below Japan (unchanged this quarter) as the fifth largest U.S. agricultural market.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
The export forecast for the Middle East is cut by $100 million to $5.8 billion on account of weak demand for wheat in Iraq.
The export forecast for Africa is lowered $100 million to $4.3 billion, due to weaker-than-expected wheat sales to Nigeria.
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, AES-112, May 29, 2020 USDA, Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service
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