工程管理专业 毕业论文文献翻译 中英文对照

工程管理专业 毕业论文文献翻译 中英文对照

河北建筑工程学院

毕业设计(论文)外文资料翻译 系别: 管理系 专业: 工程管理 班级: 管072 姓名:

学号: 2007310223

外文出处: Project Manager’s Spotlight on Risk Management

Kim Heldman 附 件:1、外文原文;2、外文资料翻译译文。 指导教师评语: 签字: 年 月 日

Defining Risk Response Plans

You’ve identified your risks, analyzed them for their impacts on the project, assigned probabilities and impact values, determined an expected value, and ranked them in order. You’ve also determined which of the risks, given all those conditions, require response plans. This chapter discusses what risk response plans are, the techniques for developing response plans, and how to document and write plans for those risks that have a high probability and high impact on the project. Let’s get to it.

Risk Response Planning

Risk Response Planning is the process of deciding what actions to take to educe threats (especially to schedule and cost) while taking advantage of he opportunities other risks present.

Typically, you’ll want to develop risk response plans for risks with the potential for high probability and high impact. It isn’t efficient to spent time writing response plans for risks you’ve determined aren’t likely to occur and won’t impact the project significantly if they do. For example, if I’m building a tourist center in the Mojave Desert, I wouldn’t spend time on a risk response plan for the possibility of rain(It does rain

in the Mojave an average of 2.5 inches per year), so the possibility exists, but it’s highly unlikely it would impact my project. I’ll deal with these

types of risks in the “Contingency Planning” section a little later in this chapter.

Remember that risk management planning, including the

development of risk response plans, isn’t a one-time exercise. As you

progress through the project and learn more about potential risk events, you’ll reevaluate their impacts, which may require a change in strategy to deal with the risk and a new or revised response plan. And even though I’ve focused primarily on risks that prevent you from meeting the goals of the project, don’t forget that risks can produce opportunities.

Uncertain Certainty

One thing is certain: your project does have risks, and if you choose to ignore them, your project will have an uncertain outcome. All project risk is closely linked with the availability of information and communication, or the lack thereof, as I’ve talked about previously. The

more information you have, the more likely you’re able to predict the risk event and its impacts.

And the better you’re able to predict risk impacts, the better you’ll be at creating risk response plans.

When thinking about risk response plans, keep in mind that risk out-comes generally fall into three categories:

* Known risks with predictable outcomes * Known risks with uncertain outcomes * Unknown risks with unpredictable outcomes

These are fairly straightforward. A known risk is something you know has the potential to happen. The term predictable outcomes implies you know with reasonable certainty what the impacts and outcomes of the risk events would be if they occurred. Unpredictable outcomes are impacts and consequences of the risk event that aren’t fully identified or

known. Let’s use a simple example to explain each of these outcomes. You’ve decided to paint your garage door this weekend. One risk that could keep you from completing this project is the weather. No problem—you cruise the Internet and check out the local forecast, which predicts

clear and sunny skies, with little possibility of showers. You have the means to learn about the weather (the Internet site) and to determine the certainty of the impact (a 10 percent chance of showers). That means you know, with predictable certainty, that this risk has a low chance of occurring. Known risks with uncertain outcomes are more difficult because, well, their outcomes aren’t certain. However, the amount of uncertainty could vary. You may, for example, know it’s going to rain but not know when it’ll start or how long it’ll continue. When you’re facing project risks with uncertain outcomes, I recommend learning everything you can about the risk and its possible impacts. (Since the impacts are unpredictable, this isn’t always possible.) You should interview

stakeholders, research past projects, and try to move as far from the

uncertainty end of the spectrum as you can. The more you know, the better.

The last bullet listed previously, unknown risks with unpredictable out- comes, says you don’t know about the risk and you don’t know about its impacts. It’s an unknown risk with an unknown outcome. Suppose you’re happily painting away and are three-quarters finished when a flock of geese happens to fly right over your house. You guessed it. An unknown risk with an unpredictable outcome has occurred.

Many project decisions are made without benefit of knowing all the facts, and risk analysis is no exception. Risk, after all, is primarily

about uncertainty. Analyzing the risks tells you about the possible outcomes for the risk, and the response plan addresses how to deal with those outcomes.

The greater your certainty of the outcome, the easier it will be to develop response plans. For example, if you know rain is a certainty on the day you’re planning on painting the garage, you can devise response plans that are fairly precise. You could postpone the painting to another day and sweep the garage floor instead.

Or, perhaps you know with reasonable certainty that the rain is coming but won’t start until early afternoon. In that case, you could quickly paint the door in the morning while the sun is still out (or the clouds are rolling in) and then flip open the door so it’s protected by the

garage ceiling until it dries. Purpose of Planning for Risks

The purpose for risk planning is to determine the most appropriate response to reduce, control, or take advantage of the risk event. Along with determining the response, you’ll want to make certain you’re choosing the right strategy for the risk event. After determining the strategy to use, you’ll develop an action plan to put this strategy into play should the risk event occur.

The second purpose for risk planning is to determine a risk owner. I talked about risk owners and their responsibility in Chapter 2, “Identifying and Documenting Risks.” Once the plan is developed, the