B.19.2 用途 ....................................................................................................................................... 72 B.19.3 输入 ....................................................................................................................................... 72 B.19.4 过程 ....................................................................................................................................... 72 B.19.5 输出 ....................................................................................................................................... 73 B.19.6优点及局限 ............................................................................................................................ 73 B.20 故障树分析(FTA) ............................................................................................................................ 73
B.20.1 概述 ....................................................................................................................................... 73 B.20.2 用途 ....................................................................................................................................... 74 B.20.3 输入 ....................................................................................................................................... 75 B.20.4 过程 ....................................................................................................................................... 75 B.20.5 输出 ....................................................................................................................................... 76 B.20.6 优点及局限 ........................................................................................................................... 76 B.21 事件树分析(ETA) ............................................................................................................................ 77
B.21.1 概述 ....................................................................................................................................... 77 B.21.2 用途 ....................................................................................................................................... 78 B.21.3 输入 ....................................................................................................................................... 78 B.21.4 过程 ....................................................................................................................................... 78 B.21.5 输出 ....................................................................................................................................... 79 B.21.6优点及局限 ............................................................................................................................ 79 B.22 决策树分析 ...................................................................................................................................... 80
B.22.1 概述 ....................................................................................................................................... 80 B.22.2 用途 ....................................................................................................................................... 80
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B.22.3 输入 ....................................................................................................................................... 80 B.22.4 过程 ....................................................................................................................................... 80 B.22.5 输出 ....................................................................................................................................... 80 B.22.6 优势及局限 ........................................................................................................................... 81 B.23 蝶形图分析 ...................................................................................................................................... 81
B.23.1 概述: ...................................................................................................................................... 81 B.23.2 用途 ....................................................................................................................................... 81 B.23.3 输入 ....................................................................................................................................... 82 B.23.4 过程 ....................................................................................................................................... 82 B.23.5 输出 ....................................................................................................................................... 82 B.23.6 优点及局限 ........................................................................................................................... 83 B.24 层次分析法 ...................................................................................................................................... 84
B.24.1 概述 ....................................................................................................................................... 84 B.24.2 用途 ....................................................................................................................................... 84 B.24.3 输入 ....................................................................................................................................... 84 B.24.4 过程 ....................................................................................................................................... 84 B.24.5 输出 ....................................................................................................................................... 85 B.24.6 优点及局限 ........................................................................................................................... 85 B.25 在险值法(VaR) ................................................................................................................................. 85
B.25.1 概述 ....................................................................................................................................... 85 B.25.2 用途 ....................................................................................................................................... 85 B.25.3 输入 ....................................................................................................................................... 86
IX
B.25.4 过程 ....................................................................................................................................... 86 B.25.5 输出 ....................................................................................................................................... 87 B.25.6 优点及局限 ........................................................................................................................... 87 B.26 均值—方差模型 .............................................................................................................................. 88
B.26.1 概述 ....................................................................................................................................... 88 B.26.2 用途 ....................................................................................................................................... 89 B.26.3 输入 ....................................................................................................................................... 89 B.26.4 过程 ....................................................................................................................................... 89 B.26.5 输出 ....................................................................................................................................... 89 B.26.6 优点及局限 ........................................................................................................................... 89 B.27 资本资产定价模型 .......................................................................................................................... 90
B.27.1 概述 ....................................................................................................................................... 90 B.27.2 用途 ....................................................................................................................................... 90 B.27.3 输入 ....................................................................................................................................... 90 B.27.4 过程 ....................................................................................................................................... 91 B.27.5 输出 ....................................................................................................................................... 91 B.27.6 优点及局限 ........................................................................................................................... 91 B.28 FN曲线 ............................................................................................................................................. 92
B.28.1 概述 ....................................................................................................................................... 92 B.28.2 用途 ....................................................................................................................................... 92 B.28.3 输入 ....................................................................................................................................... 92 B.28.4 过程 ....................................................................................................................................... 92
X
B.28.5 输出 ....................................................................................................................................... 93 B.28.6优点及局限 ............................................................................................................................ 93 B.29 马尔可夫分析 .................................................................................................................................. 94
B.29.1 概述 ....................................................................................................................................... 94 B.29.2 用途 ....................................................................................................................................... 94 B.29.3 输入 ....................................................................................................................................... 94 B.29.4 过程 ....................................................................................................................................... 95 B.29.5 输出 ....................................................................................................................................... 98 B.29.6 优点及局限 ........................................................................................................................... 98 B.29.7 比较 ....................................................................................................................................... 98 B.30 蒙特卡罗模拟分析(Monte Carlo simulation) .................................................................................. 99
B.30.1 概述 ....................................................................................................................................... 99 B.30.2 用途 ....................................................................................................................................... 99 B.30.3 输入 ....................................................................................................................................... 99 B.30.4 过程 ..................................................................................................................................... 100 B.30.5 输出 ..................................................................................................................................... 102 B.30.6 优点及局限 ......................................................................................................................... 102 B.30.7 概述 ..................................................................................................................................... 103 B.31 贝叶斯统计及贝叶斯网络 ............................................................................................................ 103
B.31.1 概述 ..................................................................................................................................... 103 B.31.2 用途 ..................................................................................................................................... 104 B.31.3 输入 ..................................................................................................................................... 104
XI
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