TEXT 67
Danger zone 危险地带（陈继龙 编译）
Oct 5th 2006 From The Economist print edition It began moderately, but has risen too far, too fast and now threatens jobs
（1）SO FIRMLY entrenched in the political economy has the minimum wage become that its latest increase, on October 1st, to ￡ ($ an hour, caused little stir. Yet the i________① of a national pay floor in 1999 was one of New Labour's most radical economic policies. Although minimum wage rates had previously covered a few industries, this was the first time that a general rate had been set.
由于最低工资已经逐步确立了在政治经济学领域中的地位，因此今年10月1日最低工资再次上涨，变成每小时英镑（美元）时，并没有引起多大的轰动。不过1999年国家最低工资标准的引入却是新工党政府在经济上最激进的政策之一。尽管起初最低工资标准仅涉及为数不多的行业，但设立一种统一的标准毕竟是第一次。
During the 1997 election campaign the Conservatives said that the policy would destroy jobs. Some economists calculated that hundreds of thousands of people might be put out of work. （2）These dire warnings proved way
off the mark after the national minimum wage came into force seven years ago. The feared job losses did not materialise.
1997年大选期间，保守党称这一政策会损害就业。一些经济学家估计，数十万人可能因此失业。可自从7年前最低工资标准开始实行以来，事实证明这些警告纯属杞人忧天。（way off the mark=inaccurate 不正确）人们担心的失业现象并没有发生。
However, that benign o________② had much to do with the cautious approach the government, advised by the Low Pay Commission, at first adopted. In April 1999 the main rate—for workers aged 22 or over—was set quite low, at ￡ an hour. Eighteen months later, the rate edged up to ￡. At this level it was worth only 36% of average hourly earnings for all employees. Furthermore, workers aged 18 to 21 had a separate, lower rate, which began at ￡3 in 1999 and was raised to ￡3.20 in October 2000.
不过，最终没有发生不良后果，很大程度上要与政府在低工资委员会的提议下起初所采取的预防措施有关。1999年4月，针对22岁以上工人所制定的主要工资标准设定得相当低，仅为每小时英镑。18个月后，这一标准逐渐升至英镑。这一水平仅相当于所有雇员平均每小时工资的36％。此外，18至21岁的工人拥有独立的标准，但比较低，1999年为3英镑，2000年10月起升至英镑。 The modest starting point for the minimum wage meant that it affected relatively few workers. The commission initially thought that it would raise the pay of around 2m workers but in practice only about a million
gained. This limited any possible loss of jobs.
最低工资的起点设定适度，就意味着它影响的工人相对较少。低工资委员会开始以为这一政策会提高大约200万工人的工资，但实际上仅为100万左右。这样一来，失业的可能性就降低了。
（3）After the initial period of caution, however, the government got bolder. This month's increase pushed the main rate up by 6%, comfortably ahead of average earnings which went up by % in the past year. Since 1999 the minimum wage has risen by 49%, outstripping[1] average earnings which increased by 32% in the past seven years. As a result, it is now worth 41% of average hourly earnings.
然而，在经过初期的“摸着石头过河”以后，政府的胆子开始大起来。本月最低标准的上涨使得主要标准增加了6％，大大超过了平均工资水平的提高幅度，后者在去年上升了％。1999年以来，最低工资标准已经提高了49％，超过了平均工资水平的增长幅度，后者在过去7年里增长了32％。因此，现在的最低工资水平相当于平均每小时工资水平的41％。
（4）This trajectory[2] contrasts sharply with what has happened in America. The federal minimum wage has stayed at $ since September 1997. At this level, it is worth 27% of average hourly wages for all employees other than those working in agriculture or for the federal government—far stingier[3] than Britain's rate.
这一增长轨迹与美国的情况形成了鲜明的对比。自1997年9月以来，美国联邦最低工资始终保持着美元的水平，相当于所有雇员（除从事农业工作或在联邦
政府谋职的人外）平均每小时工资水平的27％，远低于英国的标准。
The commission accepts that the period when the minimum wage rose faster than average earnings is over. The worry, however, is that it has already risen to a level that will hurt employment. The Confederation of British Industry said on September 24th that businesses in several parts of the economy, such as retailing, were struggling to cope with the minimum wage. A few days later the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) added that the latest increase would have “serious i________③” for firms. David Kern, who advises the BCC, says: “There is now a distinct risk that the minimum wage will have an adverse effect on jobs.”
低工资委员会承认，最低工资比平均工资增长快的时期已经结束了。但是，问题是它已经上涨到了一个即将危及就业的水平。9月24日英国工会说，最低工资标准已经让经济领域中好几个行业如零售业有些招架不住了。数日后，英国商会又称，最近一次最低工资标准的上涨可能会“严重殃及”各公司。英国商会顾问大卫·科恩说：“目前显而易见的危险就是最低工资将对就业产生负面影响。”
Whether employment will necessarily take a big knock is uncertain. M________④ economic theory suggests that a minimum wage set too high will cost jobs. （5）However, the evidence from other countries has been quite mixed. Some studies find no impact on employment whereas others find the jobs do indeed disappear, especially among young people. 就业是否必将受到严重打击现在尚无定论。主流经济学理论认为，设定过高的
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