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We can get the annual water resources in the North China in table 6:
Table 6:annual water resources in the North China
Unit: million cubic meter
Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Watersupply 30.93 30.89 31.52 32.93 33.86 We substitute the figure into the established model: 2013 34.97 2014 36.11 x(1)(t)?938.5654e0.032225*t?907.5965
x(1)(0)?30.93,withpreciseness analysis,we cangetp?100%?95%,
C?0.1758?0.35. This is a superior model and applicable. We can get the available
volume of water to supply from 2014 to 2030 in the North China as follows:
Figure 7:industrial, agricultural and ecological water usage
According to the Figure 7, the volume of water to supply is on the rise from 2008. The water supplying capacity is strengthening. Looking into the records, China started the water distribution project from south to north partly. The project was accomplished in 2014 and the water supplying capacity is extremely enhanced. Thus, the water distribution project is of great realistic significance to solving the problem of water shortage in the North China.
7.3 The comprehensive evaluation to the future
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water resources in the North China
With the establishment of the water supplying model in northern China, we draw the variation
u?F(t)?E(t), F(t) the water usage, E(t)Z the water F(t)supplying. The water demand-supply relation in northern China from 2008 to 2030 is
as follows:
Figure 8:the demand-supply relation in northern China
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Figure 9:the demand-supply relation in northern China
From the above two figures, we can see that rate of water shortage in the North China began to decline in 2010, expected to get rid of the status quo of water shortage in 2022, will reach equilibrium of supply and demand of water relations in 2025since 2008, the region raises the water demand and water supply steadily, but the speed of the water supply Y(t) is greater than the speed of E(t). And in 2025 about water supply, Y(t) is greater than E (t), the water deficit in F (t) becomes negative for the first time, and the gap between water supply and water consumption is increasing, water shortage situation in the region has been effectively improved.
Since 2008, because of China's macroeconomic regulation and control in two aspects of water and water supply. In terms of water consumption, the main policy is to reduce the rate of population growth, develop the efficient environmental protection enterprises, which makes the industrial water rate is reduced. to effectively control the rate of industrial water in north China, increasing the ecological environment water into making the region ecological environment improvement; In respect of water supply, as the south-north water diversion project fully completed, greatly increasing the ability of water supply in north China. According to this form of development bottom go to, the North China will get rid of the status quo of water shortage in 10 years.
As an economic superpower, China has large stretches, uneven distribution of water resources, which can reduce the water demands by limiting population growth rate, industrial water. And we can also solve the problem of water shortage in the North China through the establishment of large-scale water conservancy projects,
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massive south-to-north water transfer project. However the other lacking countries may not have those advantages. We care only about a region of supply and demand of water capacity, but also establish the effectiveness evaluation model of the economic measures to solve the problem of water shortage and then put forward the optimized configuration of water resources in this region, in order to solve the problem of water shortage.
7.4 Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths
☆We use analytic hierarchy process (AHP), combining with analyzing the actual situation in North China. It greatly improves the accuracy of the model parameters and the applicant ability, leads to a good quantitative ultimate goal.
☆Strong in prediction.
Weaknesses
☆Themodel is lack of quantitative data, and unbalanced-sufficient qualitative data, lead to poor credibility.
☆Kind of ideal. It is not fit for some backward countries for the requirement of high populace's cultivation.
8Optimization resourcesAllocation
of water
8.1Optimization of water supplyallocation
We can take a variety of methods to optimize the distribution of water in a region, improve the ability of the area's water supply. Due to the actual situation that each district is different, each of the optimal methods of timeliness, sustainability, economic and environmental benefits has its emphasis, so we must consider the actual situation of local water resources and water resources development characteristics locally when making concrete measures. The main consideration includes the timeliness, sustainability, economic and environmental benefits, in order to establish a configuration of water supply system in conformity with the local actual situation to solve the water shortage problem.
8.1.1 Construct the model of hierarchical structure
Traditionally we have water engineering, water diversion engineering methods to improve the ability of water supply in a region. With the development of science and technology, there appears emerging technologies such as desalination, sewage treatment. In order to raise the weights of the four methods in solving water supply gap, based on the practice area, we adopt the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) [6]to
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