业绩超预期,基本面 政策面双重驱动(6)

业绩超预期,基本面 政策面双重驱动

图表 7: 物流行业可比公司估值表

货币股价 公司名称股票代码

11-4-7

A股上市公司 建发股份*600153 CH EquityRMB8.92外运发展*600270 CH EquityRMB10.14

600787 CH EquityRMB9.83 中储股份

保税科技 恒基达鑫澳洋顺昌

新宁物流怡亚通

002183 CH Equity600794 CH Equity002492 CH Equity002245 CH Equity300013 CH Equity600119 CH EquityRMBRMBRMBRMBRMBRMB市值(百万美元）

3,0511,4031,2621,03346634647919542209A18.840.145.287.946.851.784.048.5212.443.516.629.434.5305.135.222.724.8PE10E11.431.430.035.433.344.539.247.089.930.39.924.821.125.232.318.327.611E8.930.121.127.627.236.527.837.4n.a.27.17.524.417.519.327.917.122.212E7.228.017.521.323.526.822.536.5n.a.21.66.321.1.15.114.524.015.419.309A4.32.02.05.18.59.77.64.14.58.40.83.69.72.211.71.20.9PB10E11E3.32.01.94.7n.a.4.6n.a.n.a.4.37.40.73.28.32.011.01.2n.a.2.51.91.84.2n.a.3.95.3n.a.n.a.5.20.71.27.82.09.41.10.812E1.91.81.63.8n.a.3.54.3n.a.n.a.4.70.61.16.51.88.51.10.809A 22.9 5.0 5.2 6.1 20.1 20.7 9.5 13.5 2.5ROE(%)10E11E 29.0 6.3 15.5 11.0 21.3 10.1 14.7n.a. 4.8 27.9 6.3 7.9 14.3 23.3 9.8 16.6n.a.n.a.12E 26.7 6.5 9.1 15.9 23.3 11.5 18.8n.a.n.a.CAGRPEG09~1209A

38%13%37%60%26%25%55%10%n.a. 0.2 2.2 0.5 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.4 3.7n.a.

利丰

中国外运普洛斯*UPSFedEx

CH Robinson大和控股三菱仓库长江投资

12.1514.2618.8517.1814.208.99494 HK Equity598 HK EquityHKDHKD39.61.8820,5781,028 21.6 26.0 20.7 23.9 5.0 7.7 9.1 10.2 12.1 29.9n.a. 33.0n.a.n.a. 12.9 42.2 8.2 34.6 6.6n.a. 4.7 50.1 10.5 36.4 6.6 3.8 5.1 55.5 13.0 37.7 6.9 4.626% 0.838% 0.212%32%176%14%14%9% 1.8 0.5 0.1 1.8 1.1 2.2GLP SP EquityUPS US EquityFDX US EquityCHRW US Equity9064 JP Equity9301 JP EquitySGDUSDUSDUSDJPYJPY2.0174.594.675.61,3079147,32773,45629,85812,3247,1821,888资料来源：彭博资讯，中金公司研究部；注：*

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