巴克莱资本88页香港房地产行业深度研究报告 英文(14)

巴克莱资本香港房地产行业深度研究

Figure 11: Real mortgage rates and differential inflation: Hong Kong vs the US

Since 2002, it has not been differential inflation that has driven negative real mortgage rates, but the FED’s highly reflationary interest-rate policy and the re-pricing of mortgages to HIBOR by Hong Kong banks (which has effectively reduced mortgage costs by 100-150bps), which implies that this cycle has been driven more by US weakness than by Hong Kong’s growth.

…which, with no interest-rate

increases, implies 2-2.5% negative real mortgage rates…

With no change expected in US interest rates and little re-pricing of HIBOR-based mortgages, rising Hong Kong inflation implies increasingly negative real mortgage rates. Based upon a HIBOR rate of 25bps, a mortgage spread of 75bps and inflation of 3%, we expect negative real mortgage rates to average 2-2.5% over 2011. By implication, the FED would need to raise interest rates by at least 200-250bps for Hong Kong mortgage rates not to remain highly simulative to asset prices. Figure 12: Property prices and real mortgage rate

Source: Hong Kong government, Barclays Capital

We suspect that over 2011/12, the symbiotic relationship between property and inflation will likely reassert itself. Higher property prices will encourage higher inflation, which in turn will support higher wage growth and support further property price increases. Negative real mortgage rates and desired exposure to property will likely drive an increased mortgage borrowing over 2011.

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