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Wen Jiabao paid an unusual visit to the city of Wenzhou during the recent national holiday. Accompanied by the head of the Peoples Bank of China, the finance minister and other senior officials, China‘s premier went to assess the surge in informal lending to the city‘s 450,000 small consumer product and export companies as well as property developers, many of which can no longer get cheap finance from state-owned banks and are failing. With property prices in the secondary market down 10 per cent since June, Wenzhou’s problems shed light on China’s newest economic problem – a faltering property market. 国庆节期间，中国总理温家宝对温州进行了一次非同寻常的视察。在中国人民银行行长、财政部长和其他高官的陪同下，温家宝考察了当地45万家小型消费品和出口企业以及房地产开发商民间贷款飙升的情况——许多企业无法再像过去那样从国有银行获得廉价贷款，因此濒临破产。自今年6月以来温州二手房价格已经下降10%，因此其问题突显出中国面临的最新经济问题：房地产市场萎靡不振。

What happens if the 13 per cent of GDP accounted for by property investment stalls or falls? Property is one of the main symbols and causes of urban wealth and is a key driver of industries including cement and steel. Property developers in China are faced with a fall in prices and transaction volumes, which in 20 big cities are about a third lower than a year ago. Depressed share prices are fueling fears that the property bubble is about to burst. 如果为国内生产总值(GDP)贡献13%的房地产投资停滞或下降，将会出现什么情况？房产是城市居民财富的主要象征和来源之一，也是包括水泥和钢材在内多个行业发展的主要驱动因素。中国房地产开发商面临量价齐跌的局面——20个大城市的房地产交易量已同比下降三成左右。而低迷的房地产股票价格也使人们担心房地产泡沫即将破裂。

The good news is that China managed a property slowdown successfully in 2004 without far-reaching macroeconomic consequences. And the bubble story assumes, often mistakenly, that local anecdotes of speculative activity and oversupply are national. It also ignores rising household incomes, urban house price-to-income ratios and rising demand for new and refurbished homes. A shake-out of weak developers and property assets, and some recapitalisation of banks are all manageable. 好消息是，2004年中国曾在没有对宏观经济造成严重影响的情况下成功地放缓了房地产行业的增长。认为中国房地产存在泡沫的人经常错误地认定，房地产投机活动和过度供应是一个全国现象。他们也忽视了中国家庭收入日益增长，城市房价收入比和人们对新房和改善性住房的需求日益上升等事实。实力较弱开发商的出局和房价的下跌，以及一些银行的资本重组都在可控范围之内。

The bad news is that China has a big problem with leverage in local and provincial governments, which are responsible for infrastructure and land development. This has been likened locally to China’s sub-prime equivalent. 坏消息是，中国负责基础设施和土地开发的地方和省级政府存在严重的杠杆贷款问题。这些贷款一直被比作中国的次贷。

Local governments have significant exposure to property values and collateral and are heavily-indebted with liabilities of at least 30 per cent of GDP. Many are facing cash-flow problems and are prone to default, with large refinancings and repayments due in the next two years. Some Rmb3,000bn of bad local government loans, or 8 per cent of GDP, are being scrutinised by regulators and the National Audit Bureau. A spate of failed land auctions, falls in

land transactions and weakness in property prices could have far bigger consequences for China’s capitalist model. 中国地方政府在房地产价值和抵押品上拥有巨大敞口，背负的巨额债务至少占到GDP的30%。许多地方政府今后两年需要进行大规模的再融资、偿还大量债务，因此面临现金流问题，很可能出现违约。监管机构和国家审计署正在审查地方政府约3万亿元人民币（占GDP的8%）的坏账。一系列土地流拍、土地交易量下降和房价下跌可能对中国的资本模式造成深远得多的影响。

China has the classic symptoms of a typical investment bust, notably a steady deterioration in the quality of investment and financing. A rise in the investment share of GDP to 50 per cent and signs of overcapacity in the construction and steel sectors should not be ignored. The rising ratio of the capital stock to output means that ever greater investment is needed to sustain GDP growth. 中国拥有典型投资崩盘的典型症状，突出表现在投资和融资质量逐步下降。投资占GDP的比例已上升至50%，建筑和钢材行业产能过剩，这些都是不容忽视的迹象。资本存量与产出的比率日益上升意味着，中国需要越来越多的投资来保持GDP的增长。

Beijing has to rebalance its investment-centric, credit-hungry economic model to one built round household consumption. But this is complex. It involves a redistribution of income from capital and profits to labour and wages; radical changes in the role of the exchange rate, interest rates and capital markets; and strategies to counter the high propensity to save by households, corporates and central government. It is also politically divisive because power and economic privilege have to be wrested from party elites, state enterprises and banks, and given to new beneficiaries such as private companies, households, college graduates and rural migrant workers, the last of which has become increasingly restive. 中国政府必须将其以投资为中心、高度依赖信贷的经济增长模式调整为以家庭消费为基础的发展模式，但这是一件很复杂的事情。涉及到对资本收入和企业盈利进行二次分配，用来支付劳动力成本，提高工人薪资水平；彻底改变汇率、利率和资本市场扮演的角色；制定战略，让家庭、企业和央行改变喜欢储蓄的倾向。它还会导致政治分化，因为政党精英、国有企业和银行的权力和经济特权必须被剥夺，让私人企业、家庭、大学毕业生和农民工等新群体受益。而农民工已经变得越来越难以管理。

Mr Wen continues to stress that the rebalancing of the country‘s economy is of paramount importance to China, and to the global economy. We should wish China well in this endeavour. It needs to continue to put the credit and investment genies back in the bottle and pursue economic, legal and political reforms. Beijing‘s forthcoming leadership transition does not make the timing propitious. The political will for swifter and more effective rebalancing is not convincing. Last week‘s announcement of easier credit and tax policies for smaller companies will probably be followed by easier economic and credit policies and new investments this winter as weaker exports lead to slower growth. That might be good news for some, but not for rebalancing and economic stability. 温家宝一直强调，中国经济再平衡对中国和全球经济来说极其重要。我们应该希望中国在这方面有所作为。中国需要坚持努力，把信贷和投资冲动这两个魔鬼塞回瓶子里去，并在经济、法律和政治领域开展改革。中国领导层即将换届，因此目前并非很好的改革时机。加快推出更有效的经济再平衡措施的政治意愿并不强烈。上周中国政府宣布放松对小企业的信贷和税收政策，而随着出口下降导致增长放缓，今年冬天政府很可能会实施较宽松的经济和信贷政策，并进行新的投资。对某些人而言这可能是好消息，但对经济再平衡和稳定而言却并非如此。

The writer is senior economic adviser at UBS and author of Uprising: will emerging markets shape or shake the world economy? 本文作者是瑞银(UBS)高级经济顾问，著有《崛起：新兴市场会塑造还是会撼动全球经济？》(Uprising: will emerging markets shape or shake the world economy)一书

两岁女孩遭车碾路人漠然引发中国反思

Would Good Samaritan Law Have Helped Little Girl?

Video footage showing a two-year-old girl in the southern Chinese city of Foshan being hit twice by vehicles while more than a dozen passersby did nothing to help has touched off of a painful round of soul-searching in the country and revived a long-running debate about the wisdom of helping strangers in the world's second largest economy. Youku驾车碾过女孩的两名司机均已被逮捕。

监控录像显示：一名两岁女孩在中国南方城市佛山被汽车撞了两次，但十几个路人却丝毫不肯出手相助。这段录像在中国引发了一轮痛苦的自我反省，并再次引发由来已久的有关如何在中国这个世界第二大经济体帮助陌生人的讨论。

Taken from surveillance cameras set up in a Foshan market, the chilling images show the child, identified in local media reports as Yueyue, wandering alone into the street where she is hit and run over by a white minivan. 佛山一个市场的监控摄像机拍下的这段令人不寒而栗的画面显示，这名两岁女孩（当地媒体报道称其为“悦悦”）独自一人在街上行走，后被一辆白色面包车撞到并碾过。

After pausing briefly, the van drives off, leaving Yueyue lying in the street. The footage then shows several people passing by without stopping to help the girl until, a few minutes later, she is hit by a second vehicle. Still more people walk past her without stopping -- the final tally is 18, according to local media -- until, finally, an elderly garbage collector drags her out of harms way and calls for help. 短暂停留后，这辆白色面包车开走了，留下独自一人躺在街上的悦悦。录像显示，此后好几个人从悦悦身边经过，却没有停下帮助这个女孩。几分钟后，悦悦被第二辆车碾过。此后又有多位路人从她身旁经过却没有停下。据当地媒体报道，这样“冷血”的路人共有18位。最后，是一位上了年纪的拾荒者将悦悦从危险的马路上拖到路旁，并寻求帮助。

China's state-run Xihua news agency reported Monday that police had arrested the drivers of both vehicles in connection with the incident, which happened on October 13. 新华社周一报道，警方已经逮捕了这起事故中两辆车的肇事司机。事故发生于10月13日。

A spokesman at the Guangzhou military hospital where Yueyue was taken for treatment said Monday that she in a coma. He refuted local media reports saying she was brain dead but acknowledged that she had suffered severe brain trauma. 悦悦目前在广州军区总医院接受治疗。该医院的一位发言人周一说，悦悦处于昏迷状态。这位发言人驳斥了当地媒体有关悦悦已经脑死亡的报道，但他承认悦悦遭受了严重的脑外伤。

A copy of the Southern Television Guangdong report on the Chinese video site Youku has been viewed more than 1.8 million times and drawn nearly 12,000 comments since it was posted Saturday. 广东南方电视台相关报道的内容自上周六在视频网站优酷贴出以来已经被观看了超过180万次，产生了近1.2万条评论。

The story was among the top five most-searched on Chinese search engine Baidu throughout the day Monday. It was also the most-discussed topic on Twitter-like microblogging site Sina Weibo, attracting more than 4 million comments by Monday evening. 周一全天，这则报道成了搜索引擎百度上搜索次数排名前五的内容。此事也成了新浪微博上讨论最多的话题，到周一晚上已有超过400万条评论。

Much of the online reaction in China has focused -- as it would in probably any country -- on the driver of the first vehicle, whom many said should be made to suffer the same fate as Yueyue. 在中国，网上大多数反应集中在第一辆车的司机上（在任何一个国家可能都是如此），许多人说这个司机应该遭受像悦悦那样的命运。

But much of the debate, and most of the vitriol, has been reserved for the passersby who saw a two-year-old girl lying wounded in the street and refused to help her. 但多数讨论以及大多数批评针对的都是眼见两岁女孩受伤躺在街上却拒绝相助的路人。

'The two drivers are guilty and so are the first 18 people who walked by,' argued a Youku user writing under the name Moyao. 'Why doesn't the country establish a law to punish those who refuse to lift a finger to help people in mortal danger? …When morality holds no sway over cold-hearted Chinese people, what else can we do but turn to the law?' 优酷用户Moyao写道，那两个司机有罪，最先经过的那18个路人也有罪；为什么中国不制定法律，惩罚那些对有生命危险的人不出手相救的人呢？??当生死无法触动那些冷漠的人时，我们除了付诸法律还能怎么做？

The sentiment was much the same on Sina Weibo, which set up a 'Please end the cold-heartedness' hashtag to organize discussion of the incident. 'How has society come to this?' read one post published under the hashtag by Weibo user Lu Yili. 'As the economy moves forward, humanity retreats.' 新浪微博上的看法也是一样。新浪微博倡议用＃请停止冷漠＃发一条微博对这起事件进行讨论。新浪微博用户Lu Yili用＃请停止冷漠＃发布微博说，社会怎么会变成这样？经济在发展，人性却在退化。

This is not the first time the failure of people to help a stranger in need has led to a bout of introspective commentary on the Chinese Internet. On Friday, the same day Southern TV aired the Yueyue footage, the rescue by a foreign tourist of a Chinese woman who had jumped into Hangzhou's West Lake in an apparent suicide attempt produced a similar outpouring. Why, many commenters wondered, was a foreigner willing to help the woman while Chinese tourists appeared to content just to stand on the shore and watch? 这并不是路人对需要帮助的陌生人的冷漠首次在中国互联网上引发内省性的评论潮。上周五，也就是南方电视台播放小悦悦视频片段的当天，一位外国游客在杭州西湖救起了一名跳湖自尽的中国女子，此事也引发了类似的热烈评

论。很多人纳闷，为什么一位外国人愿意帮助这个中国女子，而中国游客看来却只是站在岸边观望？

The apathy of the Chinese crowd is a phenomenon observed often, by foreigners and Chinese alike, in the recent years -- an inevitable consequence, some say, of the country's single-minded pursuit of economic growth. 近年来，中国人的冷漠是外国人和中国人都经常见到的现象。一些人说，这是中国盲目追求经济增长所带来的必然结果。

But in dissecting the Yueyue incident, many commenters have pointed to another explanation: China's lack of a Good Samaritan law to protect those who help strangers in need. 不过，在仔细研究了小悦悦事件后，很多人指出了另外一种解释：中国缺乏见义勇为的法律来保护那些帮助陌生人的好心人。

The potential consequences for those well-intentioned Chinese who chose to get involved was illustrated earlier this year by a bus driver who had stopped to help an 81-year-old woman he'd found lying injured on the ground only to have her tell police it was he who had knocked her over. 那些出于好意帮助别人的中国人可能遭遇的结果从今年早些时候的一件事中可见一斑：一辆大巴车司机停车帮助一位躺在地上受了伤的81岁老太太，老太太却告诉警察说是司机撞了她。

That episode, and others like it, have clearly been on the minds of many commenters in the case of the young girl. 在小悦悦事件中，很多评论的人显然想到了大巴司机的遭遇和其他类似事件。

'This is a social problem, not a problem of individuals,' wrote Weibo user AoB-9527. 'It's not cold-heartedness, it's not being willing to lose out.' 新浪微博用户AoB-9527写道，这是一个社会问题，而不是个人问题，不是冷漠，是不愿好心没好报。

A Youku user writing under the name Xiaodouban520 spelled it out in greater detail: 'There are too many cases in which old people fall down, are saved and then turn around and sue the people who saved them… These people walking by didn't dare help because they were afraid Yueyue's parents would wrangle with them.' 优酷用户Xiaodouban520则更具体地表达了这种想法：有很多老年人跌倒被救却反过来起诉救他们的人的例子??这些经过的路人不敢帮忙，因为他们害怕小悦悦的父母会纠缠他们。

Which raises the question: Would any of the people who passed the child by have stopped to help had they known there was camera footage to prove their good intentions.

这就提出了一个问题：如果大家知道有录像证明他们的良好用心的话，小悦悦事件中的路人是否会停下来帮忙呢？

狂人卡扎菲

A tyrant convinced he made his country great

Muammer Gaddafi, the maverick Libyan dictator who was killed on Thursday, had a grandiose vision of himself and of his country’s place in history. 穆阿迈尔?卡扎菲(Muammer Gaddafi)

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