Impact of information and communications technology on transport(21)

交通展望

Impact of ICT on Transport623

Information Box 6.e-Business

The trends that the study identifies in the B2C sector are as follows:

B2C will result in the increase of small-part dispatches to an increasednumber of end customers with individual delivery places and deliverytimes.

B2C traffic will concentrate on suburban areas.

B2C induces more courier, express and packet deliveries.

B2C will lead to homogenous transport in urban locations, and at thesame time to a better consolidation of long-distance traffic.

Storage concepts, distribution and collecting traffic have to be eback tours of delivery vehicles will produce additional traffic.Some shopping trips will be replaced by deliveries.

Applying logistic concepts can result in package effects (less singletraffic).

In-time deliveries are always price sensible and will usually lead to streettraffic.

Trends in courier, express and packet (CEP) deliveries (ongoing trends butsupported by increased online shopping).

CEP services will require more small vehicles.Total number of tours will increase.

CEP traffic will mainly affect suburban areas (housing areas).

Delivery drop-offs (pick-up stations) will be asked for in suburban livingareas.

Because of the increasing transport of small parts, other transport will besubstituted.

Speciality transport like grocery deliveries will remain a niche market.

Source:Bundesministerium fur Verkehr, Bau- und Wohnungswesen¨

(2001, p. 28)

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have equal access to the technology or the ability (or inclination) to use it. As withthe advent of the car (another ICT technology that revolutionized lifestyles), theICT impacts initially on the affluent with the necessary skills to use it. All the userinterfaces have now become far more ‘friendly’, but there are still many barriersthat need to be overcome. Within a few years, most of these will be solved, andthe technology will also be affordable.

The indirect effects are likely to be far more fundamental as the new activityand location patterns emerge. It may allow people to live in remote parts of theEuropean Union and to develop locally based travel patterns with occasionallonger distance journeys to the city. Other activities will be carried out remotely,and so the traditional problems of rural inaccessibility of isolation may beovercome. However, such futures still leave many questions open about theimportance of social interaction. Travel is not only undertaken for functionalreasons (e.g. shopping and work), but also it also has been instrumental inestablishing social networks (Putnam, 2000).

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